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- August 5, 2025
[Frontier Letter] Balancing of geodetic and seismic moment rates and its implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan
With its heterogenous deforming styles and one of the most seismically active regions, Taiwan represents a unique natural laboratory for investigating tectonic processes and associated seismic hazards. For current practice of earthquake hazard model generation in Taiwan, this first-of-its-kind study develops a surrogated regional forecast model, like PSHA, for Taiwan by incorporating geodetic measurements and updated earthquake data. By using the empirical correlation factor (β), total accumulated rates are calibrated to seismic moment rates, and then these rates are used to estimate probability measures for a specified magnitude threshold (M_w≥6) over 30 years of time period. The 30-year probability forecasts highlight regions with high seismic hazard, including the locked zone of the Longitudinal Valley fault with gradual decaying toward its southern end and in central Taiwan along the Western Foothills. The high strain rates and low earthquake occurrence rates in southwestern Taiwan emphasize a considerable amount of ongoing inelastic strain deformation in this region.
- Neha et al. (2025): [Frontier Letter] Balancing of geodetic and seismic moment rates and its implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan. Earth Planets Space 77:125, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-025-02247-0
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